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According to Miningweekly, the benchmark mineral information company (BMI) under Fitch Solutions pointed out that metals have continued their strong trend since the end of June this month.
BMI explained that this is due to the depreciation of the US dollar, the expected decline in the Fed's interest rate hike, the risk reduction caused by the imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the tight supply. Since the beginning of this year, the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index (BIMI) has risen by 10.6%, and by August 12, it has risen by 2.4% this month.
The company explained that as of August 12th, a new wave of precious metals rising in early August pushed up the Bloomberg Precious Metals Index (BPMI) by 10.2%, offsetting some of the decline earlier this year.
Regarding the trend in the second half of the year, BMI predicts that metals will continue to be supported by supply-side factors, although the current demand situation is different.
BMI believes that although the situation in the Middle East has eased and artificial intelligence has pushed up demand, the weak economic growth of major economies in the world may complicate the supply and demand situation, thus curbing the momentum of rising metal prices.
Trend differentiation
On August 6th, the copper price in the United States reached a new high, while the benchmark price of London Metal Exchange (LME) reached $14,370/ton on the same day, and fluctuated at $14,185/ton on August 12th.
The average price of copper this year is $13,251/ton, which makes BMI's current forecast face the risk of being broken. The company predicts that the average price of copper for the whole year will be $13,500/ton.
BMI explained that the optimism about the global economy and the obvious weakening of the US dollar are the main driving factors. As of August 12, copper has risen by 2.9% so far this month, and it has also benefited from supply-side problems, optimism driven by artificial intelligence and continuous tariff-driven chaos.
Among other base metals, the price of zinc hit a four-year high of $3,803/ton on August 6, mainly due to the tight supply brought by the decline in stocks. The zinc stocks on the London Metal Exchange this month ranged from 73,000 tons to 74,000 tons, the lowest since December 2025.
Due to the shortage of natural gas, Norsk Hydro cut the output of its Alunorte alumina plant in Brazil to half its capacity. Affected by the resurgence of supply-side risks, international aluminum prices have also risen.
On the contrary, nickel is the only base metal that has fallen. As of August 12th, the price of nickel has dropped by 1.8% to USD 16,925/ton this month, mainly due to the concern that Indonesia may increase its ore production quota, which will lead to oversupply, BMI explained.
In terms of ferrous minerals, the price of iron ore (62% grade) in Qingdao Port is still under downward pressure, falling below $90/ton at the beginning of the month and closing at $91.4/ton on August 11th.
BMI pointed out that although the privately compiled Rating Dog index is still in the expansion range of 50.9, it has also dropped from 51.7 in June.
BMI said that despite the supply risks brought by the supply interruption in port hedland, the iron ore industry is facing difficulties due to weak demand in the steel industry, sluggish construction market, increased port inventory and relatively flexible maritime supply.
As for precious metals, since the beginning of August, the price of gold has risen sharply. As of August 12, the monthly increase has reached 9.3%, closing at $4,423 per ounce, a new high in the past two months.
The rise of precious metals mainly reflects the moderate policy expectation of the Federal Reserve, because inflationary pressure has eased, the fear of escalating conflict in the Middle East has subsided, international oil prices have fallen, and the weak employment report in the United States has lowered the expectation of raising interest rates.
BMI Country Risk Team stressed that the weak labor market confirmed its view that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% in the second half of the year. The data shows that the labor market is sluggish, and the Fed can't just focus on inflation and raise interest rates in the short term.
In addition, the CPI index of the United States in July was in line with general expectations, and the overall inflation rate dropped from 3.5% in June to 3.4%, which put pressure on the yields of US dollars and bonds and stimulated the demand for non-profit assets.
BMI predicts that the average annual gold price will be $4,400 per ounce. As the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, the US dollar index will fluctuate between 98 and 102. The company believes that most of the previous adjustments have passed.
Regarding other commodities, BMI predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil will be $86/barrel this year and will drop to $71/barrel in 2027, but it also points out that there are great variables in this forecast.
BMI lowered the average price of natural gas in the United States from US$ 3.9/million british thermal unit (mnBTU) to US$ 3.3 /mnBTU, mainly considering that the production in the first half of the year exceeded expectations and the inventory was higher than usual.
The company predicts that the price of natural gas in Henry Hub will be 2.9 USD /mnBTU in the third quarter, and will rise to 3.7 USD /mnBTU in the fourth quarter. The demand for maintenance and heating will make the demand for LNG feed gas rebound, but sufficient inventory will restrain the price rebound.
source:https://geoglobal.mnr.gov.cn/zx/kydt/hyyxdt/202608/t20260820_10295708.htm
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